Demographic Shifts and the Future of the Trump Coalition


These scenarios, developed by the authors, include outcomes that favor both
Republican and Democratic candidates. They are not intended as predictions but
are simulations based on assumptions about different demographic groups’ future
voting patterns. Each of the alternative scenarios assumes the same projections for
the nation’s underlying demographic structure of eligible voters (EVs) with respect
to race, age, and education attainment. As such, the scenarios provide for a more
in-depth understanding than national or state polling trends can supply about
how emerging voting patterns may interact with changes in the demography of the
nation’s electorate to affect future popular vote and Electoral College outcomes.


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