2018 KY House Election

I have incorporated estimated vote totals for each of these races and vote share percentage. These are just the seats I think Democrats could win. These figures are based off my own calculations. I take into effect voter turnout and an estimate of voters who have switched parties but haven’t changed their registration. Election Prediction_Page_1.jpgElection Prediction_Page_2.jpgElection Prediction_Page_3.jpg


If Republicans retain control of the House in November, Trump will (correctly) claim victory and vindication. He will have beaten the political performances of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama in their first midterms. He will have proven the electoral value of racial and ethnic stereotyping. He will have demonstrated the effectiveness of circus-like distraction. He will have shown the political power of bold, constant, uncorrected lies. And he will gain many more enablers and imitators.


The list of those changes is dizzying. Grant statehood to D.C. and Puerto Rico, and break California in seven, with the goal of adding 16 new Democrats to the Senate. Expand the Supreme Court and the federal courts, packing them with liberal judges. Move to multi-member House districts to roll back the effects of partisan gerrymandering. Pass a new Voting Rights Act, including nationwide automatic voter registration, felon enfranchisement and an end to voter ID laws. Grant citizenship to millions of undocumented immigrants, creating a host of new Democratic-leaning voters: “Republicans have always feared that immigration would change the character of American society. Democrats should reward them with their very worst nightmare.”

Commentary: The message “86-ing” Sarah Sanders sent to conservatives


Cultural conservatives realize that they are a political minority in America.  With the glaring exception of abortion (American support for pro-life positions has increased over the past two decades), they have largely lost the battles for what the believe are fundamental family values necessary for the nation to succeed and prosper.  As a political force, they’ve moved from their “Moral Majority” days of offense to a position of defense. They’re asking the tolerant, inclusive Left to simply leave them alone. Their belief that progressives are determined to force them into accepting liberal views was one reason many evangelicals set aside their “Character counts” mantra in order to back Trump.  The Left, they believe, isn’t interested in political co-existence, but rather total victory.